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Is New York going to enjoy a white Christmas? The short answer is probably not—at least not the kind that counts.
New Yorkers love to romanticize a snow-dusted Christmas morning, but this year's forecast is leaning towards cozy sweaters over snow boots. According to forecasters, New York City is very unlikely to meet the official definition of a “white Christmas,” which requires at least one inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25.
There will be a little wintry intrigue early this week, though. A fast-moving clipper system is expected to slide through tonight into Tuesday, bringing a brief burst of snow across parts of the state. Upstate and higher-elevation regions could see some accumulation, especially east of Lake Ontario, in the Tug Hill Plateau and the Adirondacks, where several inches are possible.
But for us down south in the five boroughs, expect a different story.
In the New York City metro area, forecasters say any snow that falls late Monday night is likely to turn into rain by Tuesday morning. Accumulation, if it happens at all, would top out at a light coating or up to an inch—and that’s before temperatures climb.
By the time Christmas Day arrives, conditions are expected to be dry and, by late-December standards, mild. Highs in NYC are forecast to land in the upper 30s to low 40s, warm enough to melt or compact any lingering snow from earlier in the week. Sunshine and high pressure will move in mid-week, speeding up that process.
Historically, the lack of Christmas snow is not surprising. A true white Christmas is rare in the city. Central Park has recorded one-inch-or-more snow cover on December 25 just six times in the last 156 years. Last year was a notable exception, when an inch of snow lingered on the ground, marking the city’s first white Christmas since 2009. Before that, you’d have to go back to 2002 for accumulating snowfall actually on Christmas Day.
This year doesn’t look poised to join that list. FOX 5’s meteorologist Nick Gregory put NYC’s odds of a white Christmas at roughly one in 10. It’s not zero, but it’s not great either.